Clark County Market Update
August 2018
Growing Signs Of Changing Times
Current Market Conditions
The past two months I have reported a gentle trend toward changing market conditions. This month the trend continues.
Inventory levels rose in July to 2.3 from 2.1 in June. In fact inventory levels have been rising for the past 4 months beginning in March when they were at 1.6 months. Let me put this into perspective. We will be entering a neutral market when we get to around 3.0 months inventory. But whether this affects you depends on your price range but more on this in a bit.
Pending sales fell 7% from June to July while during the same period total listings rose 12%. The fact that pending sales fell when listings increased indicates the market is now close to being saturated… that the shortage of listings is nearly over.
Total listings rose 23% for July as compared to July 2018.
Sold properties fell slightly in July 2018 over June 2018.
IT IS ALL POINTING TO A CONTINUING TREND.
At first glance it seems odd that the average price of a home continued to rise this month. The rise was 3.0% compared to the prior month. For the first 7 months as compared to the same period in 2017 the average price has increased 9.8%. These are pretty strong price increases for a changing market. I think it is natural to wonder how home prices can continue to rise while inventory levels have risen for 4 straight months in a row causing a weaker market. I think the answer is that most of the change in inventory is occurring above the $500,000 price range and this price range makes up only a small part of the market.
Here are some simple comparative inventory levels for different price ranges during July 2018.
Price($s) Inventory (in months)
200-300 1.1
300-500 2.1
500-700 4.0
700-1 million 5.7
The homes priced below $500,000 make up 81% of the market while homes priced above $500,000 make up 19% of the market (of homes priced below one million dollars). The momentum of homes priced below $500,000 is still strong and we have a shortage of homes so prices are still on the rise. Since they make up the majority of our market, they are pushing upward the overall average price of homes. However, if this trend continues this could change.
If the national economy remains strong then the market should recover soon and prices will again rise for all price ranges. I suspect the market is in a temporary stall because of concerns about tariffs. These concerns should fade once these issues are resolved and the housing market will recover. My sense if that Trump will back off on the tariffs soon as he is getting too much pressure on this.
While the market is in this stalled position, we have a very competitive market for homes priced below $500,000. Buyers will still have a tough time finding a good buy but buyers for homes over $500,000 there are some good deals. It is hard to predict the direction of the market but I am placing my bets on the market remaining stalled for 1-3 more months before taking off again.
THOUGHTS ON FOODS
I am totally eager to learn more about staying healthy but unfortunately there is a difference between learning and doing, isn’t there? Like, I know that eating ice cream can be harmful for me, but I enjoy it too much to totally avoid. So, I have it for an occasional treat and try not to overdo.
We all have our challenges when it comes to ingesting the right things and avoiding the wrong things. The incentives must be right before we will make a change and eat healthy or avoid bad stuff. Incentives for our eating decisions often include:
1)Pleasure
2)Cost
3)Peer pressure
4)Awareness of the issues
Take cigarettes: peer pressure must be how one starts and then the pleasure and addiction keeps it going. For me, the cost and awareness of the issues totally overrides everything. Many years ago we were still learning how bad cigarettes were for us. Many folks just used their common sense to figure it out and avoid them while others required the certain awareness and/or the rising costs.
Eating organic foods seem so much today like cigarettes did 50 years ago. We are seeing more and more evidence that foods exposed to pesticides are doing damage yet it has not been proven conclusively. Remember when that was the case for cigarettes?
Earlier this year the Environmental Working Group (EWG) updated their DIRTY DOZEN REPORT. These are the fruits and vegetables that (after testing over 39,000 samples) contain the most pesticides.
We are still learning all the ways pesticides do damage. For example:
1) According to the American Academy of Pediatrics in their 2012 Report, Research links pesticide ingestion and risks to brain development during pregnancy and early childhood.
2) A Harvard study, as reported in the Harvard Gazette showed a link between declining men’s sperm counts and eating foods with pesticides as compared to those who eat fewer such foods.
3) Several studies have shown a decline in men’s semen quality and clear effects from some specific pesticides according to an article in the Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment and Health Vol 33, No 1 (February 2007), PP 13-28. (https://www.jstor.org/stable/40967617?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents) although no consistent results or conclusions are yet available.
4) Dole paid $3.3 million 11 years ago to six Nicaragua farmers because they were rendered sterile from the pesticide DBPC after working in a Dole banana plantation.
Unlike cigarettes, eating organic foods does not have much peer pressure working in its favor and the pleasure of organic foods over other foods is hardly different plus organic foods cost more. The only factor eating organic foods working for it is awareness of the health issues. For many of us, that is not very motivating but as the research comes in this could be changing.
Those of us who cannot afford to buy exclusively organic produce can simply choose organic produce that has shown the greatest tendency to have residual pesticides on them. Such a list is called the Dirty Dozen. If your budget is tight, focus your hard earned dollars on organic produce where it has been shown that nonorganic produce retains the highest levels of pesticides. If strawberries retain the highest levels of pesticides, favor bringing home organic strawberries.
The DIRTY DOZEN list as per the 2018 update:
1 Strawberries
2 Spinach
3 Nectarines
4 Apples
5 Grapes
6 Peaches
7 Cherries
8 Pears
9 Tomatoes
10 Celery
11 Potatoes
12 Sweet Bell Peppers
There is also a list of “CLEAN FIFTEEN” produce from EWG. This is non-organic produce that has the least amount of pesticides. The Clean Fifteen list looks like this:
1 Avocados
2 Sweet corn
3 Pineapples
4 Cabbages
5 Onions
6 Sweet peas (frozen)
7 Papayas
8 Asparagus
9 Mangoes
10 Eggplants
11 Honeydew melons
12 Kiwis
13 Cantaloupes
14 Cauliflower
15 Broccoli
To view this full report, click here.
Our common sense may be our best guide in our choice of foods.
I suspect that what we are currently learning about is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the damage pesticides inflict.
Got Time For Coffee?
Helping get answers to your question is what gets me up each morning. It is my purpose for being. If you have a question pertaining to real estate ( or chickens or composting for that matter) fire away. I am eager to help. And if you wish to meet for Coffee (or tea or lunch), let’s do it. Thank you
KELSEY FAMILY FARM: Lily Comes to the Farm (The latest stories)
Text for our FRESH LIST!
Lots growing on the farm in the gardens and greenhouse. We’ll have vegetables, herbs, and fruit coming in the next few months. The sandwich board on the road announces what is fresh and ready. Text and we’ll send you our FRESH LIST. You can also text to reserve our marvelous eggs and custom roasted Wake the Rooster Coffee. TEXT 1-949-306-9977
Fifty new hens have been acquired so we are going into fall with lots of new egg-layers. Egg numbers will be creeping up so be patient if our shelf has been empty lately. We’ve got some gorgeous Bielfelders, Olive Eggers, and Cream Legbars who will be adding some new color to our cartons.
Wanting to Pickle Cucumbers? I can get you fresh organically grown cucumbers and I can likely deliver it to you direct. Text in your order to me:. 360-921-2203
Thank you
Kelsey Family Farm is an ongoing concern created by Jonell Kelsey and supported daily by her sister, Jennifer Stone with occasional labor provided by Chris Kelsey.
Chris Kelsey, GRI, MBA
Managing Broker
Keller Williams Premier Partners
Cell: 360-921-2203