Clark County Real Estate Update
June 2017
Market Performance:
(Based on April RMLS Stats)
The current Clark County housing market is a strong seller’s market. Inventory levels in May (1.6 months) tightened slightly from April (1.9). There were reports on local news radio that the Portland housing market was stalling but I see no indicators in the Portland RMLS stats that is happening. Portland stats suggest an even tighter, stronger seller’s market than Clark County.
Lockbox activity remains strong suggesting buyers are still looking. Listings are on the increase and buyers are gobbling them up as quickly as they arrive. Interest rates have risen this year but so far the increases have not affected buyer activity. Continued rate increases are expected to continue gently. If the increases remain small then we should see buyer interest continue. If there is a large jump in rates then it will almost certainly slow down buyer activity.
The combination of rising home values and interest rate hikes over time will eventually reach a breaking point and the market will pause or stall. I do not expect anything close to a crash. The stall, if it happens, will take some pressure off buyers as they quickly detect the change in the market. This will cause home values to soften just a bit. Again, this would not be a crash, just merely an adjustment like you might see from the stock market.
Everything points to a continued seller’s market in the long run.
Why do I track the Market?
During the past 28 years I have been studying real estate as a full time realtor, there have been many cycles where home values rose and fell. The largest down-cycle of my time began in 2006. At that time I and a partner started a speculative home priced at $600,000. During construction the market began to change. First the market just felt different and then the RMLS stats revealed the pause. By the time we finished building the home in February, 2007 we were growing very uncomfortable. We had no idea how severe conditions would get. We only knew the market was heading in the wrong direction. For all we knew, the market could turn around next month. We decided to be safe. We lowered the price $85,000 and got an offer quickly.
A few months later we realized we dodged that bullet but many of my clients did not. Over the next few years folks lost their homes while others struggled. The hardest hit, I believe, were the families hoping to retire with the equity in their homes for support. Many such families put their retirement plans on hold and continued to work.
My goal now is to carefully track these RMLS stats and report market conditions as I see them. I cannot predict the future but I can provide information so you and others can make their own informed decisions.
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Seasonal Gardening Thoughts
If you are enjoying a garden this year then you may have discovered that ants do to. “Why would ants choose my garden?”, you ask? A major source of food for the ants are aphids which are planted and milked by the ants for their “honeydew”. The ants protect the aphids and In the fall and winter months, they will bring the aphid eggs underground for protection until next year. This amazing relationship is well detailed at this link if you want to know more.
https://www.thoughtco.com/aphid-herding-ants-1968237
Ants can be controlled using natural materials, borax and sugar, but caution is needed as direct application to the soil may harm your plants and sterilize the soil.
To read more on simple safe methods for control of ants, check out this link:
http://homeguides.sfgate.com/insects-borax-chase-away-kill-83399.html
DO YOU KNOW SOMEONE THAT NEEDS A RENTAL?
A client has just purchased this home and is looking for a tenant. It has over 1700 square feet, is in very good condition with granite countertops, large windows and high ceilings. Rent is $1700 per month. The location is about 4 minutes north of Clark College in an area of new homes. Rentals are in short supply so if you are interested then call Mr. Yen right away: 609:902-2428 or 609:275-1974 and tell him I sent you.
If you want a full bank of photos, just let me know and I will send them out.
SPECIAL MARKETING FOR 1 LEVEL HOMES
I have seen a growing demand for one level homes over the past few years. Many retirees are finding our County attractive for many reasons and one level homes are often favored by retirees. The baby boomers are one of the largest population groups and they are all at or near retirement. In response to this growing market, I have created a special marketing effort where buyers can see my latest listings for one level homes and in some cases even before they are listed. I am posting these homes on Youtube.com. Simply do a youtube search for “one level homes in Clark County, WA” and they will pop up or click on the link below. Any buyer looking for one level homes will find my updated information. This marketing effort is intended to increase the number is interested buyers and the possibility of multiple offers.
Currently I have several new homes and acreage locations where new 1 level homes are planned. I am also posting all preowned one level homes as the listing come in. Any buyer can subscribe to my channel and immediately get my postings. By increasing exposure, sellers will get the best price possible.
If you are not yet ready to sell your one level home but would like to post a video for the future, give me a call. Let’s talk about it.
For a sample of postings in this early stage of my efforts, please click on the link below or copy and paste the link into your browser:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hy4Hu9Ww-R0
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1lDSFL0IGg
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTsQW6ieUW0
I am still putting this together. Thank you for your patience. Your feedback is welcome.
If you know of someone looking to buy a 1 level home priced around $245,000 -$280,000 please let me know as I have two such listings coming in the next 2 months.
KELSEY FAMILY FARM: Lily Comes to the Farm (The latest stories)
It’s a Dry Heat
Just returned from visiting the grandkids in California. It’s dry and hot where they live and our skin and hair takes a beating in the sun. As soon as we return to Washington, the hair settles down and hands and feet plump back up. All critters are happy with the lush growth of vegetation after abundant rain. We have lots of eggs to pack for delivery and wool to send to the mill. Uncle Ryan is bashing down an entry wall in preparation for a new coat rack and boot tray assemblage. There is mowing and weed whacking to be done. The driveway is a tunnel of green as heavy branches droop with new growth.
More about the Kelsey Family Farm can be found at www.KelseyFamilyFarm.com
The brain child and owner of Kelsey Family Farm: Jonell Kelsey
Thank you
Chris Kelsey, GRI, MBA
Managing Broker
Keller Williams Premier Partners
Cell: 360-921-2203
Efax: 360-702-0777
chris@ckelsey.com
www.ckelsey.com
Performance reviews
Clark County Real Estate Update
MAY 2017
Market Performance
Based on April RMLS Stats.
The current Clark County housing market is a strong seller’s market. Inventory levels suggest the market did weaken just slightly, making what seems to be a normal adjustment. However, lockbox activity is holding strong. We are not seeing any slowdown in buyer activity.
Inventory levels are at 1.9 months which is slightly higher than the 1.6 months of March.
The Future: Where is the Market Headed?
It is normal for the number of listings to increase during the early summer months and it is good news that lockbox activity levels remained strong during April and May. Lockbox activity is an early indicator of a slowdown in buyer activity. If we were to begin an overall downturn in the market then it would first show up here.
I do not see a concern for the market at this time. However, historically buyer activity does drop off in the short run during periods of uncertainty. I have been concerned how buyers might react to current world events but I see no negative influence on the market as yet.
On May 17, when the independent prosecutor was appointed for the Russian related investigations, the stock market dropped over 370 points but the housing market did not seem to slow.
You may be wondering how the housing market might react during a major world news item. Inman News reports that short term slowdowns occurred during the Nixon and Clinton impeachments, the Iran Hostage situation and 9/11. In all these situations, the market recovered in just a few short months. I also remember a brief slowdown during the Gulf War of the early 90s.
Is There a Buyer Opportunity Coming Soon?
While these types of slowdowns seem like a great opportunity for a buyer, they are nearly impossible to capitalize on. Sure, it is great for a buyer to get $5,000 or $10,000 off the price but when does a buyer make a purchase? A buyer never knows when we are at the lowest price until the market has recovered and then it is too late. With real estate as with stocks, the best strategy is to buy over the long haul. Real estate has been a good investment over the long haul.
With Home Prices Rising…. Is this the Wrong Time to Buy?
Here is another perspective. For the past 2+ years, prices have been rising at about 10% a year. For a $250,000 home, that is about $2,000 per month plus the compounding factor. So, a buyer today has gained in appreciation over $5,000 in just the first few months of ownership. In the case of a market slowdown as mentioned above with a typical price drop of $5,000, a buyer is protected within only 2-3 months of ownership. Understanding this helps a buyer realize that ownership or investing is not as risky as one might at first think.
And here is a third perspective. If you are currently renting, home values are currently rising for a $250,000 home at around $2,000 per month. So each month homes are getting more difficult to buy. Each month it is getting more difficult to come up with the monthly payment and down payment. But, on the other hand, if you current own and one day want to move up to a larger home, your current home is building equity all the while you are in that home. When the time comes that you need to upgrade, you have a lot of equity to help you make that upgrade. You can use that equity to make a larger down payment and reduce the monthly payment on the new mortgage. So even if you cannot afford your ideal dream home, you are better off to buy a satisfactory home now because it then begins building the equity to help you into that dream home later. If you
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How to quickly & easily communicate with your local representative and senators.
Many of us have opinions we want to express to our local political reps but the actual act of calling or writing is just a bit forbidding. I was recently talking with a client (thanks Sue) who was interested in an easy way to express her political views to our local senators and representatives. In Clark County we are talking about Sen. Cantwell, Sen. Murray and Repr. Beutler. May I suggest texting to them? You can go to their web sites to email them but that seems more effort. You can call them but so often I do not reach a real person.
Texting has worked well for me. This option is sent as a text and arrives at the destination as a fax. Is that cool or what? Texting is a great tool for sending a message on the fly, quickly and easily. This is a bipartisan tool and available for all to use. The activation code, resist, may suggest otherwise but please just ignore that.
Text to “504-09”. Then type in “resist” and easy instructions will follow.
I hope you find this helpful.
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Do you have a specific question on the market or on your home?
Give me a call and let’s talk about your situation.
SPECIAL MARKETING FOR 1 LEVEL HOMES
I have seen a growing demand for one level homes over the past few years. Many retirees are finding our County attractive for many reasons and one level homes are often favored by retirees. The baby boomers are one of the largest population groups and they are all at or near retirement. In response to this growing market, I have created a special marketing effort where buyers can see my latest listings for one level homes and in some cases even before they are listed. I am posting these homes on Youtube.com. Simply do a youtube search for “one level homes in Clark County, WA” and they will pop up or click on the link below. Any buyer looking for one level homes will find my updated information. This marketing effort is intended to increase the number is interested buyers and the possibility of multiple offers.
Currently I have several new homes and acreage locations where new 1 level homes are planned. I am also posting all preowned one level homes as the listing come in. Any buyer can subscribe to my channel and immediately get my postings. By increasing exposure, sellers will get the best price possible.
If you are not yet ready to sell your one level home but would like to post a video for the future, give me a call. Let’s talk about it.
For a sample of postings in this early stage of my efforts, please click on the link below or copy and paste the link into your browser:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hy4Hu9Ww-R0
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1lDSFL0IGg
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTsQW6ieUW0
I am still putting this together. Thank you for your patience. Your feedback is welcome.
KELSEY FAMILY FARM: Lily Comes to the Farm (The latest stories)
A Farm Shower
Aunts, uncles, cousins, and siblings descended on the farm for a baby shower under the new porch roof. There were branches of flowering plum and quince and pots of Johnny-jump-ups for decoration. It was a fairy theme and Lily, Catie, and Lily Belle were in full fairy regalia with wings and wands. They jumped on the trampoline while the adults ate finger sandwiches and drank lavender lemonade. The parents-to-be were pleased, the sun shone all day, and only one dog fell in the pond. Every pot, pan, and platter was used in the preparation and it took days to run all the dishes through the dishwasher. The new baby girl arrives in June, a highly anticipated addition to a giant family.
Wool to Africa
We got a call from a software engineer who was about to leave on a mission to the Congo with Mending the Soul, a non-profit organization. He asked for samples of wool and yarn to use in activities with survivors of the Rwandan genocide. James came to tour the farm and got a fast tutorial on wool processing from sheep to knitwear. We sent him away with a big bag of washed Corriedale fleece, black and white roving, and finished yarn, both dyed and natural. I gave him lessons on winding a ball of wool from a hank of yarn and how to make an angel from roving plus a few bits of knowledge from my art therapy training. We will share pictures of our wool in action in Africa when James returns later this month
More about the Kelsey Family Farm can be found at www.KelseyFamilyFarm.com
The brain child and owner of Kelsey Family Farm: Jonell Kelsey
Thank you
Chris Kelsey, MBA, GRI
Keller Williams PP
chris@ckelsey.com
360-921-2203
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Clark County Real Estate Update
APRIL 2017
based on March RMLS Stats.
The current Clark County housing market is a strong seller’s market.
Inventory levels are at 1.6 months which is lower than the 2.0 from the February period. This suggests a continued strong seller’s market.
New listings came in unusually strong in February, 44% higher than in January but closed sales gobbled them up quickly leaving us with a lower inventory. Based on past years, we should see listings continue to climb steadily for the next several months and this should cause the sellers’ market to weaken slightly but still continue as a sellers’ market.
HOME APPRECIATION HOT SPOTS: A THOUGHT FOR INVESTORS AND CURIOUS HOME OWNERS
A client recently asked if I agreed that his Ridgefield home was lagging the market in terms of price appreciation. I did not think there was any basis for his suspicion but to my surprise he was correct. In fact, the County overall has seen surprisingly huge differences in appreciation rates. Let me share with you what I found.
The average appreciation rate for all of Clark County was just under 10%. However, there was a huge range (from -2.2% to 32%) of different rates of appreciation throughout the County. Below are the highlights; areas of lows and highs.
THE HOT SPOTS
The hottest area in the County was Cascade Park (between I205 and 164th Ave and south of Mill Plain) where home values rose over 32% over the past year on average-WOW! There were 49 sales in this area.
In 2nd place was the area east of I5 to Battle Ground and north of 179th Street up to the north County line. This area saw home values rise 21% over the last year on average. There were 13 sales in this area. This is a relatively small number of total sales so just one or two unusual situations, such as a few new expensive homes could have distorted the numbers. I do not consider this a reliable number.
In 3rd place was the NW Heights area (between SR500 and Mill Plain and between I5 and 72nd Ave) which rose 17.5% over the past year on average. There were 48 sales in this area.
THE COLD SPOTS
The rural areas such as Yacolt, Amboy, Venersborg and areas north of the Washougal River saw very low appreciation rates. Sales is these areas ran below 10 each for the year. Such low sales numbers make reliability uncertain of these areas. Just one large sale or new home could throw the rate way off.
Yacolt was an exception. Sales there were a total of 14 for the year, much higher than the other rural areas, while appreciation was 2.8%. There were a number of new homes sold there which would throw off the reliability of the appreciation rate. The housing recovery process has not fully reached the more rural areas of the County yet. I suspect we will see a surge in values for these more rural areas if the recovery continues and as electric and hybrid cars become more popular.
The first areas in the County with low appreciation rates and high sales figures is Ridgefield and downtown Vancouver. Ridgefield saw an appreciation rate of only 5.4% with 87 sales and downtown Vancouver saw home prices rise 5.1% with 38 sales. Why these popular areas are lagging is a bit of a mystery. If you have an explanation then please send it along. I would love to hear it.
Another lagging area is next to and just east and south of the 3rd hottest spot mentioned above. Oddly enough the SW Heights area (between I5 and 72nd Ave and south of Mill Plain) appreciated only 6.1% while the NE Heights area (between 72nd Ave and I205 and between 4th and Mill Plain) had a 6.3% appreciation rate and yet right next door the appreciation rate was 17.5% as mentioned above.
The Salmon Creek and Felida areas west of I5 and west of I205 saw home values rise at between 11-12% while next door, east of I5 and I 205, home values rose at only 5.8%.This distinction points out how the market feels about just the seemingly smallest changes in location.
The balance of the County had an appreciation rate of between 8-15% with most areas between 10-13%.
If you would like to know the appreciation rate of your area specifically just write and I will look that up.
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Do you have a specific question on the market or on your home?
Give me a call and let’s talk about your situation.
SPECIAL MARKETING FOR 1 LEVEL HOMES
I have seen a growing demand for one level homes over the past few years. Many retirees are finding our County attractive for many reasons and one level homes are often favored by retirees. The baby boomers are one of the largest population groups and they are all at or near retirement. In response to this growing market, I have created a special marketing effort where buyers can see my latest listings for one level homes and in some cases even before they are listed. I am posting these homes on Youtube.com. Simply do a youtube search for “one level homes in Clark County, WA” and they will pop up or click on the link below. Any buyer looking for one level homes will find my updated information. This marketing effort is intended to increase the number is interested buyer and the possibility of multiple offers.
Currently I have several new homes and acreage locations where new 1 level homes are planned. I am also posting all preowned one level homes as the listing come in. Any buyer can subscribe to my channel and immediately get my postings. By increasing exposure, sellers will get the best price possible.
If you are not yet ready to sell your one level home but would like to post a video for the future, give me a call. Let’s talk about it.
For a sample of postings in this early stage of my efforts, please click on the link below or copy and paste the link into your browser:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hy4Hu9Ww-R0
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1lDSFL0IGg
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTsQW6ieUW0
I am still putting this together. Thank you for your patience. Your feedback is welcome.
KELSEY FAMILY FARM: Lily Comes to the Farm (The latest story)
New and Old
Men were loading a ton of hay in the barn when Chili Pepper was born. She’s a feisty little ewe lamb born to a first time mom. Mama wasn’t impressed with her baby but is getting the hang of things. We’ve been supplementing Pepper with a bottle so now she cries mightily when she sees Grandma coming in her red boots. In another corner of the barn, Ruby, who at eleven was the oldest of our ewes, quietly expired this afternoon. She ate heartily this morning and appeared to enjoy the hay we gave her at noon. She’s been shaky on her pins but with a good appetite right up to the last. One of our original feral sheep, she was finally calm and trusting. Happy trails old girl.
More about the Kelsey Family Farm can be found at www.KelseyFamilyFarm.com
The brain child and owner of Kelsey Family Farm: Jonell Kelsey
Thank you
Chris Kelsey, Keller Williams PP
360-921-2203
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Clark County Real Estate Update
March 2017
based on February RMLS Stats.
The current Clark County housing market is a strong seller’s market.
Inventory levels are at 2.0 months which is a slight drop from the January period. This suggests a continued strong seller’s market. Supporting a seller’s market is the observation that homes for sale are often receiving multiple offers within the first few days on the market when priced properly.
In fact, current market conditions are encouraging a specific market strategy. By listing and marketing a listing at a price below the expected selling price is drawing lots of interest and creating an auction-type effect. As offers come in, agents will make all buyers aware of the growing competitive environment and encourage buyers to bump their offers higher. I believe this technique results in a higher final selling price than if the property is simply listed at the high end of the expected selling price. This technique also has the advantage of taking only a few days as opposed to having the property sit for months at the higher list price before the right buyer comes along with a strong offer.
A CAUTIOUS WORD
Average home prices have risen 10% the past 12 months in Clark County. The question is, “How long will this continue?” According to Moneywatch*, RealtyTrac has reported that in 76% of the nation, home appreciation has outpaced wage growth. In fact, “Across the country, home price appreciation has outpaced wage growth by a 13-to-1 ratio”, the study found. You, as a recent participant of the 2007 crash, will agree that this trend at some point will come to an end. Either incomes start rising while home values stabilize or we have another crash.
I have talked with a lot of respected folks and found a wide range of opinions. I assure you that while I may not quickly predict a long lasting fall in prices, I can tell you when a slowdown in the housing market is in progress before it becomes public knowledge. I can feel it as a realtor and the numbers usually support that feeling 6 weeks later. But knowing the market is slowing down is very different from knowing it will continue and for how long. Rest assured, I will let you know when the market “FEELS” like it is slowing as well as when the numbers state the market is slowing. Then, you must decide how long the downturn will last.
WHEN IS THE BEST TIME IN THE YEAR TO SELL
If you have a choice on when to sell, the graph below explains why selling early in the year is best. Inventory remains low typically for the first few months of the year while at the same time buyers are usually eager. This combination creates a frenzy that often fades as the year progresses because the number of homes on the market typically increases during the late spring and summer months. Consequently, early in the year it is easier to get multiple offers and work the offers even higher.
Do you have a specific question on the market or on your home?
Give me a call and let’s talk about your situation.
SPECIAL MARKETING FOR 1 LEVEL HOMES
I am seeing a growing demand for one level homes over the past few years. Many retirees are finding our County attractive for many reasons and one level homes are often favored. In response to this growing market, I have created a special marketing effort where buyers can see my latest listings for one level homes and in some cases even before they are listed. I am posting these homes on Youtube.com. Simply do a youtube search for “one level homes in Clark County, WA” and they will pop up. Any buyer looking for one level homes will find my updated information. This marketing effort is intended to increase the number is interested buyer and the possibility of multiple offers.
Currently I have several new homes and acreage locations where new 1 level homes are planned. I am also posting all preowned one level homes as the listing come in. Any buyer can subscribe to my channel and immediately get my postings. By increasing exposure, sellers will get the best price possible.
If you are not yet ready to sell your one level home but would like to post a video for the future, give me a call. Let’s talk about it.
For a sample of postings in this early stage of my efforts, please click on the link below or copy and paste the link into your browser:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hy4Hu9Ww-R0
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1lDSFL0IGg
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTsQW6ieUW0
I am still putting this together. Thank you for your patience. Your feedback is welcome.
KELSEY FAMILY FARM: Lily Comes to the Farm (The latest story)
Chicken Update Just a reminder that this carton of eggs comes from our small (under five acres) farm in Hockinson. Our hens have free range of the orchard and fields and return by themselves at night to the coop. We feed a certified organic, soy-free, corn-free, non-GMO layer mix that we buy by the ton from a mill in Bellingham, Washington. The mix includes organic kelp sourced from the Atlantic. In addition, we offer free choice oyster shell and all the bugs and worms they can find. With spring and the new grass, egg production will go up and yolk color will intensify. Yum!
More about the Kelsey Family Farm can be found at www.KelseyFamilyFarm.com
The brain child and owner of Kelsey Family Farm: Jonell Kelsey
Thank you
Chris Kelsey, Keller Williams PP
Realtor of 28 years +
360-921-2203
*Moneywatch, March 26, 2015 by Aimee Picchi, “Too Bad Wages Aren’t Rising as Fast as Home Prices”
Chris Kelsey, GRI, MBA
Managing Broker
Keller Williams Premier Partners
Cell: 360-921-2203
Efax: 360-702-0777
chris@ckelsey.com
www.ckelsey.com
Performance reviews